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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.